Comments on: Living with probability 1-ln(2) http://www.danvk.org/wp/2007-10-15/living-with-probability-1-ln2/ Keepin' static like wool fabric since 2006 Wed, 08 Oct 2014 14:33:23 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.9.2 By: Nathan http://www.danvk.org/wp/2007-10-15/living-with-probability-1-ln2/comment-page-1/#comment-4461 Tue, 16 Oct 2007 15:30:40 +0000 http://www.danvk.org/wp/?p=226#comment-4461 Ok. I looked at the solution. I buy it. That’s a classy problem.

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By: Nathan http://www.danvk.org/wp/2007-10-15/living-with-probability-1-ln2/comment-page-1/#comment-4460 Tue, 16 Oct 2007 14:59:16 +0000 http://www.danvk.org/wp/?p=226#comment-4460 I don’t buy it, Dan. I haven’t looked at the solution yet, because I want to give it some more thought and see if I can change my mind, but I’ll share with you my initial thoughts that make me feel like there’s no way to get 30%.

Change the objective so that instead of having to get all 100 right, you only need the first 2 to get it right. This is more likely (given that in order to get all 100 right, the first 2 also have to get theirs right). Assume wlog that person 1 picks boxes 1 – 50. Person 2 can assume person 1 got his right, since otherwise they have lost already.. The best he can do is pick the other boxes 51 -100 (since he can assume one of the 1st 50 contained the other guy’s name: not his own). But this only gives him a 50/99 chance of getting his name!

Soooo, it seems to me the best you can do even for the first 2 people both being correct is only 25.25%!

I’ll see if I can find the error of my ways, but I ain’t seeing it.

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